Julie Peisner Julie Peisner
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Many separate but connected events occurring in the global, national and local economy may have an impact on the San Francisco real estate market this year, the extent to which is unknown. These include a jump in the inflation rate, increased stock market volatility, the bond market sell-off, the weak dollar and talk of a fourth rate increase this year by the Federal Reserve Board.

Home buyers are laser focused on mortgage interest rates, as well as how financially secure they feel with their investment portfolios. A gyrating stock market can not only reduce buyers’ ability to deliver on their downpayments but also deter their eagerness to make offers, let alone bid aggressively on them. As mortgage rates rise, and perhaps even more this year than anticipated, it hurt buyers in terms of the amount they can qualify for and sellers in terms of the downward pressure it puts on home values.

All that said, San Francisco still has a booming job market and buyer demand that well out-strips supply. It’s hard to imagine a truly shifted market place, yet these two sides may come a bit more into balance this year.

Single Family Homes:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,350,000 is up 10.5% over last year’s.

In the past 12 months, new listings were down 5.9% while sales were up 0.94%.

January’s inventory of 1.1 months is 35% lower than in 2017.

70% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 108% in January.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,050,000 is up 11.3% over last year’s.

In the past 12 months, new listings were down 7.5% while sales were up 2.4%.

January’s inventory of 1.6 months is 33% lower than in 2017.

39% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 100% in January.

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